Enabling proactive water management for mining operations

Water management ranks among the most complex operational challenges in modern mining. Heavy rainfall, rapid snowmelt, tailings storage requirements, and environmental compliance create compounding pressures. When operators work with outdated forecasting methods or historical averages, these challenges can manifest as dangerous conditions and costly surprises.

Access to reliable surface runoff and inflow forecasts offers a solution for safer, more efficient mining operations. With accurate predictions, mine water and tailings teams can anticipate conditions, reducing the risk of unplanned releases, optimizing water recycling operations, and maintaining regulatory compliance.

This case study examines how one international mining company integrated both short-term and seasonal forecasts to address these challenges. Operating across multiple sites in a snow-heavy region of North America, the company worked with HydroForecast to deploy customized forecasts that addressed both immediate operational needs and long-term planning requirements. The HydroForecast results demonstrate forecast error reductions of up to 28% for operational planning and 26% for seasonal budgeting compared to traditional persistence methods. This enables more confident equipment management, improved tailings compliance, and more reliable water procurement decisions.

Short-term forecasts: Managing water risk at ungauged locations

The challenge

Many critical inflow entry points at the company’s sites are ungauged, creating blind spots for site managers. Without real-time flow data, the team faced significant challenges.

• Limited ability to anticipate when and where to preemptively move equipment ahead of storms
• Difficulty managing tailings dam freeboard for regulatory and safety compliance
• Increased likelihood of unplanned discharge events—putting operational continuity and reputation at risk

The HydroForecast solution & results: More accurate hourly forecasts

HydroForecast now informs day-to-day and emergency operations at these “blind spot” sites with precise, location-specific forecasts. The operations team relies on short-term hourly predictions to:

• Proactively manage water systems: Open or close valves in their water diversion system, managing rising inflows before storms hit.
• Protect equipment and minimize downtime: Guide fleet and equipment relocation from flood-prone, low-lying areas during intense monsoon season storms.‍
• Strengthen compliance: Optimize tailings dam operations by knowing when and where to expect flow spikes.

At key sites, validated short-term inflow model performance demonstrated a 28% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to traditional persistence methods. This measurable boost in forecast accuracy supports regulatory compliance, improves planning confidence, and helps protect both people and infrastructure.

Seasonal forecasting: Planning for water supply and budget decisions

The challenge

In recent years, the mine has faced a growing challenge as historical water averages are no longer a reliable guide for operational planning. With climate-driven variability, past data often underestimates or overstates current patterns, making it difficult to:

• Budget for recycled water needs and secure contracted water volumes
• Plan for water recycling targets and site operational requirements
• Assess risks to meeting regulatory or committed downstream water deliveries

The HydroForecast solution & results: Adaptable seasonal and annual forecasts

HydroForecast Seasonal brings valuable foresight to water budgeting and procurement, delivering natural inflow forecasts up to 12 months in advance, with daily resolution. By integrating these predictions, the customer’s water resources team now confidently sets quarterly water requirements backed by forward-looking intelligence rather than outdated historical averages.

At this location, validation of HydroForecast Seasonal demonstrated a 26% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to data based on the long-term average (LTA). This improvement translates directly into more reliable water budgets, less risk of over- or under-contracting, and stronger resilience against increasingly unpredictable water years.

Key takeaways: The HydroForecast impact for mining companies

These results highlight several lessons relevant to mining operations facing similar water management challenges:

• Ungauged sites don't have to be blind spots. Location-specific forecasting can provide operational visibility at critical inflow points where installing physical gauges isn't practical or cost-effective.
• Historical averages increasingly fall short. As climate variability intensifies, forward-looking forecasts offer more reliable inputs for water budgeting and procurement decisions than long-term historical data.
• Forecast accuracy directly impacts operations. Measurable improvements in prediction accuracy—whether 28% for short-term operations or 26% for seasonal planning—translate to tangible benefits: better compliance, reduced downtime, and more confident decision-making.
• Integration across time scales matters. Combining hourly operational forecasts with seasonal planning tools allows teams to manage both immediate risks and long-term resource allocation from a unified data foundation.

For mining companies navigating increasingly complex water challenges, the shift from reactive management to forecast-informed planning represents a practical path toward improved safety, compliance, and operational resilience.

For more information on how HydroForecast can support your operations, reach out to our team.